The Government Shutdown, Explained

Today, on October 21st at 12:01 AM EDT, after Congress failed to pass appropriations for the new fiscal year, the U.S. federal government shut down. Our political climate, marked by partisanship, has collapsed into administrative unraveling.

This drastic context comes in the context of the Trump administration reworking the levels of executive powers and weakening checks to contain abuses. In January, Trump fired 17 inspectors generals who were tasked to maintain checks through federal oversight. Overall, the administration is starving independent bodies of resources, such as the Council of the Inspectors General on Integrity and Efficiency, jeopardizing what is left of accountability for the government.

The political climate that led to appropriations not being agreed upon stems from concerns over recent Trump administration actions. The admin has pulled away funding from crucial infrastructure in blue states, such as freezing billions in NYC transit initiatives. This action epitomizes the attacks based on polarization amid the shutdown. Beyond funding, Trump withdrew nominations for unqualified roles in the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, showing that he is even facing internal chaos over his actions, and showing the issues with politicizing agencies with tasks as mundane as publishing statistics. Together, these previously described actions reflect the broader ambition to centralize authority in Washington and explain why the political landscape has been so discontent with Trump.

But what about the consequences of the shutdown? Amid the shutdown, the administration is reshaping the federal workforce in arguably the most dramatic manner in history. Over 100,000 workers are expected to leave the government under a designated "deferred resignation" program, while forced retirements, firings, and buyouts could increase the number to over 275,000. In total, these reductions represent around 12 percent of the federal civilian workforce, eroding the credibility, capacity, and expertise of our government. The economic costs are also mounting. A memo from the White House estimates that each week the shutdown continues, $15 billion in GDP could be lost. Inside the agencies, around 750,000 workers are being furloughed, with these workers losing around $400 million per day, with many having to work without pay. Programs housing vulnerable populations, with programs such as food assistance and public health, are under threat, especially in states that operate under slim fiscal margins. In the long run, the shutdown is a negative for U.S. credit, undermining market confidence in our economy.

Beyond the economy, there are political consequences. Suspending funding, mass dismalls, and tight control create a strategy where the executive has sole control, sidelining Congress and the local government. The administration's attacks on oversight, as previously described, only create further cause for alarm. Deleting checks on the executive, especially at a time of crisis, creates a precedent of tyrannical authority. These collapsing institutions, beyond just eroding democracy, create a situation where it is much harder to respond to a crisis. Whether it be economic shock, natural disasters, or public health emergencies, the risk of failure is only growing as a result of Trump-induced partisanship. As a result of local governments suing the federal administration over funding concerns, or the overall political landscape in Congress being the most polarized, D.C. seems to be falling apart.

The events unfolding in Washington shouldn't be just looked at as a result of immediate consequences; what should be kept in mind is the events that caused them to occur. Unless checked, the partisanship and weak institutions that created this problem could mark the beginning of a structural collapse that forever breaks our government.

— Omar Dahabra