Signs of Authoritarianism: Shaping Maps for Control

Traditionally, the process of drawing election maps has followed a standard principle. Every 10 years, a census is taken to determine the makeup of our population. States then use the census results to create districts where elections for the House of Representatives take place. However, in an unprecedented move, Texas Republicans are deviating from this trend. Likely as a result of the Republican Party's unfavorability heading into the 2026 elections, they have decided to gerrymander to try not to be humiliated in 2026.

Gerrymandering to make it easier to win elections is deeply unpopular. YouGov polling shows that 69% of Americans oppose partisan redrawing to win elections, and 74% oppose racial redrawing. In Texas, both of these unpopular objectives are being accomplished. The proposed maps divide Central Texas's 35th district, one that was made by courts to protect minority voting rights. Even though changing the maps like Texas is doing is blatantly unconstitutional, the Supreme Court seems afraid to make any rulings that would be looked down upon by Trump and the GOP. A big reason for the map changes seems to come from Trump himself, with him saying that Texas is "entitled to 5 more Republican seats."

As a result of the planned redrawing, Democrats in the Texas legislature left the state for places such as Illinois, so that the session would not meet the required number of members to begin. Many still have stayed outside of Texas, but some are budging and moving back as a result of threats of arrest and expulsion from Governor Greg Abbott and other Republican leaders using the FBI as blackmail. On Wednesday, the DNC's place of stay in Illinois was threatened to be bombed.

Democrats recently walked out of the legislature, blocking Republicans from reaching the quorum needed to move the bill forward. As of Friday, the map had not progressed in the legislature, despite threats of arrest, expulsion, and FBI involvement from Gov. Greg Abbott and other GOP leaders. This past Wednesday, Texas Democrats' temporary hideout in Illinois was targeted with a bomb threat. Despite all of this chaos, there is precedent to this walkout. Democrats left in 2003 to block similar redistricting, and in 2021 to protest voter-suppression laws. Republicans haven't seemed to budge. Abbott has already announced he will end the current special session and begin a new one with the same redistricting agenda, betting that persistence will outlast the boycott.

The proposed maps that reconfigure key blue districts in cities such as Houston, Dallas, and Austin, according to Republican leaders, are designed to reflect "political changes." But it's clear, as Republicans are only getting less popular due to immigration, handling of the Epstein files, and economic policy, the intent is about dismantling multi-racial Democratic districts into majority-white Republican areas.

The proposed maps would reconfigure key districts in Houston, Dallas–Fort Worth, Austin, and South Texas. According to Republican leaders, the changes are designed to "reflect political performance." Critics say the intent is less about accuracy and more about entrenchment: dismantling multiracial coalition districts and dispersing Black and Latino voters into majority-white, GOP-leaning areas. As Justin Levitt, professor of law for Loyola Marymount University, stated, "I don't think [Trump's] planning on those five seats alone. At this point, the president is staring at historic unpopularity and having to sell a historically unpopular signature piece of legislation, while the very normal midterm waves tend to go against the party of president. He is petrified at losing control of Congress, and it's much more than the normal petrified because of him. He knows it's going to come with oversight, with investigations, and stop his passage of what's been a historically unpopular public program."

The Numbers Game, and Possible Implications

Currently, Texas sends 25 Republicans and 13 Democrats to the House. The new Republican map would raise that to 30 Republican seats if the maps and elections go in their favor, which could be decisive in such a tight chamber. The walkouts of the Democrats, while unlikely to stop the plans of the Texas GOP, could trigger court intervention or public backlash against the Republicans.

Furthermore, Texas's aggression has already prompted responses about redrawing maps in other states. In California, Governor Gavin Newsom has hinted at a redraw to regain Democratic seats in 2022, a big shift in a state that has historically been proud of its independent redistricting commission. Although abandoning the commission's work could invite accusations of hypocrisy, Newsom sees the action as necessary to be done to combat the threat from Republicans in 2026.

Other states, such as Illinois and New York, are also exploring possibilities of changing their maps, after significant pressure from Governor Newsom. The phenomenon isn't simply a blue-state issue. Republicans in Missouri and Indiana are trying to make their changes. The tit-for-tat battle between states seems certain to invite political chaos in the future.

The effects of these changes in the midterms will likely be very drastic, depending on which states successfully change their maps. If Texas secures five new GOP seats and states like California don't respond, the GOP could enter the cycle with a massive advantage. Legal challenges could delay map changes for both parties in key states, making it hard to predict what challenges will be able to be addressed. In the end, no matter how voters and the courts decide, Texas may have already set a template for a new phase of American politics, not fighting over the minds of the public, but the maps that choose them.