Putin's Gambit: A Ploy for Peace

One day out from Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin's summit meeting, the stakes in Ukraine have never been higher. The U.S believes Putin is fully committed to ending the conflict, yet Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has his concerns. Ukraine has not been offered a seat at the table in Alaska. On top of that, Trump's rhetoric around the topic sets off all kinds of alarms as the strategy looks to be appeasement. Last Friday, Trump commented that there would be "some swapping of territories to the betterment of both." Given the current administration's track record with Zelensky, a deal could potentially come at the cost of the Ukrainian people.

Trump is adamant on a couple of key aspects surrounding upcoming negotiations. First, if the meeting goes well, a second summit will be organized, this time including Ukraine. Moreover, President Trump has stated that there will be "severe consequences" if Putin does not agree to the end of the war. The repercussions will likely take the form of economic sanctions. Even with Trump's outward disapproval of Putin's war, we still need to remain vigilant. European officials have raised concerns questioning whether the Trump we get in Anchorage, Alaska, will be as tough on Putin as he claims to be. Indeed, Zelensky and his allies are worried about negotiations ending with Kiev getting the short end of the stick. Comparing Trump's extended history with Putin to his fiery outburst against Zelensky, it is clear why unease has risen. In February, Zelensky's meeting with the current president proved fruitless as the diplomatic talks turned into more of a screaming match, with Vice President J.D. Vance involved as well. On the other side, Trump has continually praised Putin as a friend. In fact, on his first day in office, Trump tried to reignite the sparks of friendship by conveying remorse for Putin's isolated position in global politics.

Russian leader Vladimir Putin is a notorious smooth-talker with decades of experience in buying time. This time, in Alaska, the trap is set for Trump to walk into. Putin plans to capitalize on the previous anti-Ukraine stance Trump has taken, when he falsely puts the blame on Ukraine for starting the war in the first place. Crucially, Trump is not wrong when he claims that Russia is looking for a peace deal. The piece of the puzzle missing, however, is the cost at which peace will arrive: land. As aforementioned, the White House has already reaffirmed its willingness for this deal to "swap territories". Putin, in his calculations, has realized that it is all about perspective. Moscow has already gained legitimacy and recognition for their pursuit of Ukraine by the mere existence of this meeting and the exclusion of Zelensky. A summit alone with the U.S will be sure to stir up some pro-Russian sentiment in the White House's mind. Thus, further negotiations will see the U.S. more inclined to cede land to the Russians, at the expense of Ukrainian citizens.

At his best, Trump has been wishy-washy regarding guarantees of security to Ukraine. Right now, Kiev needs confirmation, not uncertainty. President Trump is running a campaign. Not another presidency, but instead for a Nobel Peace Prize. That's precisely why he was seen shaking the hands of leaders from Azerbaijan and Armenia. However, in the delicate situation of Ukraine, Trump's political games could come at the cost of real peace. Moreover, history does not seem to promise a promising outcome for Zelensky and the rest of Europe as well. The diplomatic strategy that the Trump administration seems to take when it comes to Russia is a danger to the Ukrainian people and all of Europe, who want to resist Russian hegemony. Ahead of tomorrow, one thing is clear: Trump must not fall for Putin's ploy for peace.